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Will HTML5 replace Flash?

Web Apps and Content

“Will HTML5 replace Flash?” on the Web. The quick answer is no. However, there is a lot of nuance here and it’s helpful to make the distinction between two broad classes of content applications that are deployed in browsers.
First, there are what I would call Web Productivity Apps. These kinds of applications require responsive, cross-platform, desktop like and highly interactive experiences. They often require seamless integration with existing web content and data. For several years, the Flash Platform was the best platform for creating these types of applications (per above). However, in the past several years, HTML+JavaScript (Ajax) and now HTML5 have created a highly compelling framework to build these applications, and for a large number of web productivity apps, the HTML5 approach will become the preferred model. The best examples are Google Apps, Salesforce.com, and even Microsoft’s forthcoming Office Online. There are also a class of Web Productivity Apps where Flash is the preferred runtime, especially those that involve working with and manipulating media such as images, audio and video. We, like many companies, are pragmatic and use both Flash and HTML as the technology needs require. Other examples of this include rich data visualization applications, where Flash has gained prominence inside of enterprises because of its rich data and visualization features.
The second broad class of applications are what I would call Rich Media Apps. These kinds of applications include largely consumer-facing, audience and media centric experiences. In particular, this includes online video, rich media advertising and marketing, and online games (casual games). All of these kinds of applications are highly focused on having a great and immersive experience that just works, and the creators of these apps are very focused on audience reach — anything that impedes 100% consumer acceptance is a significant concern. Here, Flash is dominant. The unique runtime characteristics of Flash, combined with its incredible reach, has led these types of apps to become highly dependent on Flash, and massive amounts of the broadband economy are dependent on it. It seems unlikely that HTML5 would be at all positioned to replace Flash for these categories, though it is clearly worth watching how consistent rich media runtimes find their way into the HTML5+ standard. Right now, it is a non starter.

Predictions of BEN HUNT on future of web2.0/3.0

• A browser that instantly shows you the content you’ll find most interesting
• Search engines that return fewer, better results – every time
• A marketplace that always tells you the best products and services, and lets you advertise anything you like
• A world with no more spam, phishing or online scams
• Being able to access your contacts’ current details all the time, without effort
• and being able to find the right contact wherever you are

I’d like to share my vision for how all this will work, which is low-tech, doesn’t rely on any new technology, and is nearer than you think. And I predict that Yahoo! will probably be the company to make this happen, in the next 2 years.

An evolutionary step

The web has given us some great applications that let us do some amazing things: communicate, publish, share, and shop with greater ease and speed than ever before. People, content, and data are more fluid and connected than ever before.
However, the world-wide web has now reached the limits of the platform. These great applications that we have are still fragmented and inconsistent when they could be interconnected and co-operative.
The new web will be a platform that simply joins up all the functions and data with a new network of connections below the application level, enabling a new generation of applications that will make life easier, more productive, safer. and more fun.

Searching today’s fragmented web

Think how often you use an internet-based application to find something: content, recommendations, shopping, services, contact details, research, comparison…

Remember: "The answer is out there!"

The right answer is nearly always out there – somewhere.

• That person’s contact details do exist online
• There is a piece of software that does just what you need
• There is a company that sells the item you need at the right price
• Someone is trying to sell the sofa that’s perfect for your room

Most web applications are trying to match information to where that information is needed

The major problem is intrinsic to the Internet’s architecture: there is no center. The lack of center is the reason why the web has become so useful so quickly – it has enabled free, organic growth.
But it also means that any time we try to compare information, we have to try to collect information in one place – such as on a single database. That’s difficult on the web, although there are partial successes, see below:

Examples of the fragmented web

• Ebay has a huge database of people selling stuff, which it matches to people looking for stuff
• Google has a massive index of web page content, which it matches to search phrases
• Friends Reunited has a database of where people went to school
• Car Harbor is a solution (currently in development) that will match people looking for car parking with people who have free space to rent
• Loads of dating sites have databases of people wanting to find people who want to find people
• LinkedIn has a database of businesspeople’s information, and links between them

I could go on. What these applications have in common is that:

• They all try to match information with needs-for-information
• They all have their own databases that contain a small proportion of the information out there
• And their scope is limited to only the data they hold themselves

In other words, they all have part of the picture.
This means they can only try to find the best answer to what you need with the information available.
It doesn’t matter how much bigger or smarter these systems get, they’re limited by the fragmented web version 1.0. Google or Ask.com will never be able to know what you really want when you search for "home run". This is because the current web is still locked into reductionism. Because all these applications are just part of a disconnected world of data, they’re forced to reduce everything to their basic component parts.

Case study

You want to find someone to come in and help clean your house.
Now, there’s someone living half a block away who would be perfect for the job.
But…

• They won’t have a web site advertising their services
• They won’t be in the Yellow Pages or on other listings guides
• They promote their services only via word of mouth
• They have done similar work for a neighbor of yours whom you don’t know

So there is a right answer out there, but how do you find that person?

If you use a search engine to search for "Cleaner Chesterfield", what do you get? Absolutely nothing of any use! Google returns about 248,000 results, which are useless to me!
I don’t want 248,000 results! I want one good one!
The search engine has taken the information I provided, and it has done its best. I don’t blame Google – its algorithms are very powerful. It’s just that power isn’t enough to solve this problem.
What’s needed is a new way of looking at the problem – a new system that appreciates the context of my query, not just the words I use. "

The next killer app

The next killer app isn’t an app.
It will be a new networking platform that builds on today’s world-wide web and makes possible new generations of more powerful and useful applications.
Vision of a next-generation web that is just as simple and flexible as web 1.0, but more interconnected and powerful.
At its core, it will incorporate a universe of connections that reflects the real-life links between people, organisations, services, products, web sites, and other entities.

The Social Future of Web2.0 / Web3.0

Ben Hunt casts an eye to the future of a more connected web and how we will experience it through new social applications.
This vision features insights into new search engines, an online marketplace, and solutions for phishing and spam.
Ben also predicts that Yahoo will be the dominant online brand for the next 5 years